Paul Skenes finished the 2026 regular season with 200 strikeouts in 174.1 innings over 32 starts, a 3.82 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. His expected ERA (xERA) was 3.30, so the underlying contact quality was better than the final line suggests.
The Season Line
Skenes made 32 starts for Pittsburgh and went 10-11. The strikeout and command numbers are the real story.
| Stat | 2026 |
|---|---|
| IP | 174.1 |
| ERA | 3.82 |
| WHIP | 1.12 |
| K | 200 |
| BB | 49 |
| K/9 | 10.33 |
| BB/9 | 2.53 |
| HR/9 | 1.03 |
| Opponent AVG | .227 |
| Opponent OPS | .670 |
That is 200 strikeouts against 49 walks, a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.08. Hitters batted just .227 against him and 146 hits in 174.1 innings works out to 7.54 hits per nine.
The Last Two Starts
Skenes closed his season with two starts in the final weeks, and the results were mixed.
| Date | Opponent | IP | ER | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Kansas City Royals | 6.0 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | St. Louis Cardinals | 6.1 | 1 | 8 | 2 |
Across those two outings he struck out 15 and walked 3 in 12.1 innings. The damage came against Kansas City, where he allowed 5 earned runs and 2 home runs. His final start, September 24 against St. Louis, was the cleaner one: 8 strikeouts and 1 earned run over 6.1 innings on 96 pitches.
Paul Skenes Statcast Breakdown
Our Statcast-based card data for Skenes lists a 3.30 xERA against his actual 3.82 ERA, a gap of about half a run in his favor on expected results. His expected stats against agree: a .216 xBA, a .350 xSLG and a .218 xwOBA against.
His four-seam fastball averaged 96.8 mph this season, and his first-pitch strike rate was 62.7%. The 2.53 walks per nine and 10.33 strikeouts per nine show a pitcher who attacks the zone and still misses bats, with 1.03 home runs per nine (20 homers allowed in 2026).
Why It Might Sustain
The case for a better 2027 ERA is simple. A 3.30 xERA with a 4.08 strikeout-to-walk ratio describes a pitcher whose results should track toward his expected line if the home run rate settles. The caution is that he still allowed 20 homers in 2026. At 24 years old, with 32 starts and 174.1 innings behind him this year, the workload is a positive sign for durability.
In Legends Deck
Skenes' 2026 Legends Deck card is rated 96 overall. The card carries an 84 Power Pitching grade, an 86 Control grade, an 83 Run Prevention grade and a 90 Durability grade, built from the same strikeout, walk and expected-stat inputs shown above. If you are building a rotation around one arm, this is the card the data points to.
See his current card on the Legends Deck marketplace.
