Highest Chase Rate in MLB 2023

Source MLB StatcastSeason 2023 (archive)527 qualified pitchers

Robert Stephenson led MLB in chase rate in 2023 at 41.6%. The top three were Robert Stephenson, Gabe Speier, Richard Bleier, from Statcast data.

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Robert Stephenson led 2023. Play a half-inning in our Statcast-driven sim with today's leaders: the same kind of numbers drive every card's rating.

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2023 Chase Rate leadersTop 100 of 527

Chase Rate 2023: top 100 qualified MLB players ranked by Chase Rate.
#	Player	Chase Rate % ▾
1	Robert Stephenson	41.6%
2	Gabe Speier	39.7%
3	Richard Bleier	38.8%
4	Chris Martin	38.3%
5	Dylan Lee	37.6%
6	Trevor Richards	37.5%
7	Jacob deGrom	37.5%
8	Ryan Borucki	36.0%
9	Raisel Iglesias	35.6%
10	Alex Young	35.5%
11	Joe Musgrove	35.5%
12	Tanner Scott	35.4%
13	Giovanny Gallegos	35.1%
14	Matt Moore	35.1%
15	Sandy Alcantara	34.9%
16	Cristopher Sánchez	34.9%
17	Kyle Nelson	34.8%
18	Joe Mantiply	34.8%
19	Taylor Clarke	34.8%
20	Ryan Pressly	34.8%
21	Aaron Nola	34.7%
22	Shawn Armstrong	34.7%
23	Spencer Strider	34.5%
24	David Bednar	34.5%
25	Keegan Akin	34.5%
26	Luis Garcia	34.5%
27	Gavin Stone	34.4%
28	Pablo López	34.3%
29	Zach Eflin	34.1%
30	Elvis Peguero	34.1%
31	Will Smith	34.0%
32	Kyle Hendricks	34.0%
33	Jeff Hoffman	34.0%
34	Huascar Brazobán	34.0%
35	Will Vest	33.9%
36	Danny Coulombe	33.8%
37	Eli Morgan	33.8%
38	Chris Sale	33.7%
39	Ryan Yarbrough	33.7%
40	Andrew Bellatti	33.7%
41	Domingo Germán	33.6%
42	Bailey Ober	33.6%
43	Gregory Santos	33.5%
44	Josh Hader	33.5%
45	Tarik Skubal	33.5%
46	Johnny Cueto	33.5%
47	Chasen Shreve	33.4%
48	Pierce Johnson	33.3%
49	Erik Swanson	33.3%
50	Tayler Saucedo	33.3%
51	José Urquidy	33.3%
52	Jordan Romano	33.2%
53	Keynan Middleton	33.1%
54	Nick Martinez	33.1%
55	Nick Pivetta	33.1%
56	Jacob Webb	33.1%
57	Joe Ryan	33.0%
58	Merrill Kelly	33.0%
59	George Kirby	33.0%
60	Duane Underwood Jr.	32.9%
61	Jason Foley	32.8%
62	Félix Bautista	32.8%
63	Wandy Peralta	32.6%
64	Ryan Walker	32.6%
65	Kevin Gausman	32.6%
66	Devin Williams	32.6%
67	Connor Brogdon	32.5%
68	Logan Webb	32.4%
69	Aaron Loup	32.4%
70	Zach Plesac	32.4%
71	Nick Lodolo	32.3%
72	Yennier Cano	32.3%
73	Dominic Leone	32.3%
74	Zack Wheeler	32.2%
75	Keaton Winn	32.2%
76	Shane McClanahan	32.2%
77	Andrés Muñoz	32.2%
78	Jon Gray	32.2%
79	Garrett Whitlock	32.2%
80	Andrew Nardi	32.1%
81	Andrés Machado	32.1%
82	Matthew Boyd	32.1%
83	Ian Gibaut	32.1%
84	Beau Brieske	32.0%
85	Thomas Hatch	32.0%
86	Justin Steele	32.0%
87	Ryan Pepiot	32.0%
88	Adbert Alzolay	32.0%
89	Ryan Brasier	32.0%
90	Kutter Crawford	31.9%
91	Jakob Junis	31.9%
92	Allan Winans	31.9%
93	Tyler Mahle	31.9%
94	José Alvarado	31.9%
95	Ryan Helsley	31.8%
96	Tyler Holton	31.8%
97	Drew Rasmussen	31.8%
98	Scott McGough	31.7%
99	Marco Gonzales	31.7%
100	Drew Smyly	31.7%

What chase rate measures

Chase rate (O-Chase%) is the percentage of pitches a pitcher throws OUTSIDE the strike zone that the hitter swings at. It measures a pitcher's ability to entice hitters to expand the zone — breaking balls that look like strikes before diving off the plate, two-seamers that run off the inside edge. League average sits around 28-31%; elite zone-manipulators push hitters past 35%. Unlike whiff rate, which rewards pure miss-bats, chase rate rewards pitch design and tunneling — the deception that makes a hitter commit to a pitch he should take. Higher is better for the pitcher, and this is the chase rate pitchers induce, not the chase rate hitters show. Pitchers need at least 100 batters faced.

Why chase rate matters

Chase rate complements whiff rate: a pitcher with a high chase rate but modest whiff rate is often one sequencing tweak away from a strikeout spike (the swings are already there, they just need to miss). It is one of the stickiest pitcher skills year-over-year and a leading indicator for breakout relievers.

This archive captures the 2023 season as it ended; for the live, nightly-updated leaderboard see Highest Chase Rate in MLB.